Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 47.25%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.95%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
