Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.01%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.63%) and 3-1 (6.58%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
