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Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 24, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Campeón del Siglo
AP

Penarol
1 - 2
Athletico PR

Alvarez (22')
Trindade (40'), Busquets (74'), Alvarez (84'), Rodriguez (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Terans (2'), Rocha (75')
Erick (13'), Richard (33'), Nicolas (77'), Nikao (83'), Cittadini (90+3')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.01%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.63%) and 3-1 (6.58%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
PenarolDrawAthletico Paranaense
54.01%20.85%25.13%
Both teams to score 66.37%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.37%31.62%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.87%53.12%
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.02%11.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.6%37.39%
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.4%24.59%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.91%59.08%
Score Analysis
    Penarol 54.01%
    Athletico Paranaense 25.13%
    Draw 20.85%
PenarolDrawAthletico Paranaense
2-1 @ 9.3%
2-0 @ 6.63%
3-1 @ 6.58%
1-0 @ 6.25%
3-0 @ 4.69%
3-2 @ 4.62%
4-1 @ 3.49%
4-0 @ 2.49%
4-2 @ 2.45%
5-1 @ 1.48%
4-3 @ 1.15%
5-0 @ 1.06%
5-2 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 54.01%
1-1 @ 8.77%
2-2 @ 6.53%
0-0 @ 2.95%
3-3 @ 2.16%
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 20.85%
1-2 @ 6.15%
0-1 @ 4.13%
2-3 @ 3.05%
0-2 @ 2.9%
1-3 @ 2.88%
0-3 @ 1.36%
2-4 @ 1.07%
1-4 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 25.13%

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