Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 59.08%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
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0.13) 
