Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 55.49%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 19.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.12) 
