Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
0.31) 
-0.06) 
