With these teams facing contrasting levels of pressure, we would not be surprised to see the home side push their opponents all the way. However, we cannot ignore that the visitors must go on the offensive, leading us to predict an away victory in a five-goal thriller.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
2.04) 
-2.49) 
