Although America Mineiro have upped their game of late, we expect Gremio to extend their unbeaten home record with a narrow victory on Thursday, as America have taken a solitary point from four away league outings this year, conceding at least two goals on each occasion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
11.25) 
-5.56) 
