Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 59.91%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
0.08) 
-0.17) 
