Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 51.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 22.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Coritiba in this match.
