Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.28%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (12.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
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