America Mineiro have struggled in front of goal over the past few weeks, but they may have more joy in the final third on Saturday against an out-of-sorts Flamengo outfit.
Nevertheless, the hosts have fared better on home soil, winning five of their last six games at the Maracana, and we expect them to come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 73.59%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 8.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.94%) and 3-0 (10.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
0.08) 
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