We said: Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Flamengo
Instilling some confidence back into what appears to be a broken Flamengo side will not be easy, nor will it happen overnight.
Even if Mineiro yield a weaker side for this encounter, there is so much talent and depth at every position that we have complete confidence they will be able to shut down a struggling offensive unit in Urubu.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.