Mineiro have been in strong form in the league so far, and Avai have not been so effective away from home, making Sunday's hosts strong favourites for this one.
Having lost their last two matches, Avai may be starting a poor run of form in the top flight after just achieving promotion, and coming up against the reigning champions seems like an unwinnable task.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 70.1%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Avai had a probability of 10.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.69%) and 3-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.97%), while for an Avai win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
-2.32) 
1.36) 
