A tough run of luck with injuries and a recent lack of goals means that Corinthians should start as outsiders - particularly away at the Maracana. Therefore, Flu can grasp their chance to close the gap between the teams down to just two points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 49.22%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
0.38) 
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