Athletico score at a rate of one goal per game when away from home in Serie A, while Goias find the net at a similar rate on home soil.
While the hosts lack the firepower to upset their visitors by ending an impressive unbeaten run, they can grind out a draw thanks to a decent defensive record at Estadio da Serrinha.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Goias win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Goias win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Goias would win this match.
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