The way Palmeiras have been playing, this might very well be a must-win game for Paranaense if they want a chance to catch the league leaders before the end of the campaign.
Both sides are as sharp as they come on the defensive side, but Palestra are rarely exposed at the back and are masters at finding those pockets of space in behind opposing wing-backs, which we believe they will take advantage of this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 73.4%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 9.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.35%) and 3-0 (10.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
0.73) 
-0.3) 
