Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 44.04%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 27.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.84%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
-0.24) 
0.05) 
