Given Ceara risk dropping out of the Copa Sudamericana qualification places, we expect them to put up a fight and take the game to Palmeiras. The hosts have nothing to play for having already clinched third place in the standings and despite their superior crop of players, we predict the visitors will force a share of the spoils in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 56.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 19.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palmeiras in this match.
