As the only team on a three-match winning streak in the division, Santos will be respected ahead of this contest. Nevertheless, we expect the consistency of the visitors to ultimately prevail in a match that may be decided during the closing stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Santos had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-0 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.05) 
