These are familiar rivals who have always contested closely regardless of the form of each team, which is why we believe that this will not be a straightforward win for Flamengo.
In addition, Sao Paulo have been solid on home turf, losing just one of their last 13 home matches across all competitions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 36.67%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 1-0 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.06) 
