Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 49.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.44) 
