Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 49.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.

Result
Corinthians	Draw	Vasco da Gama
49.65% ( -0.08)	26.68% ( 0.44)	23.67% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 45.73% (

-1.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.97% (

-1.84)

58.03% (

1.83)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.28% (

-1.47)

78.71% (

1.46)

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.52% (

-0.82)

23.48% (

0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.5% (

-1.2)

57.5% (

1.2)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.77% (

-1.37)

40.23% (

1.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.13% (

-1.28)

76.86% (

1.27)

Score Analysis

Corinthians 49.64%

Vasco da Gama 23.67%

Draw 26.67%

Corinthians	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.68% ( 0.61) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 4.79% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.36% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.56% Total : 49.64%	1-1 @ 12.46% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 9.45% ( 0.64) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.66% Total : 26.67%	0-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.32% Total : 23.67%