Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 56.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.
0.35) 
-0.15) 
