Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 22.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
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