Bahia put forth a valiant effort in the opening leg, but it is hard to envision them coming into enemy territory and reversing their fortunes against a team who excel in virtually every category, with plenty of experience in elimination games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
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