Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
2.43) 
-2.72) 
