Both teams could be slightly tired having been involved in Europa League action on Thursday evening, but there is little doubt that Leverkusen enjoyed an easier time of things having swatted Qarabag aside on their home turf.
Freiburg rarely lose at home under Streich, but Leverkusen have not lost in any competition all season, and we can envisage them narrowly restoring their healthy cushion at the summit with another victory.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 0-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-1.38) 
1.98) 
