Bremen's excellent recent away form has lifted them into European contention, but a draw with Darmstadt last weekend exposed their shortcomings again.
Hoffenheim have struggled on home soil but should bring plenty of confidence into this tight encounter after winning at Dortmund last weekend.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 54.95%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 23.22% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Hoffenheim in this match.
1.15) 
-0.31) 
