Hoffenheim's defensive record has been wretched in recent times, meaning that Heidenheim will fancy their chances of recording an upset. The visitors are one of the most potent teams from set-pieces in the Bundesliga and could cause plenty of issues in that regard.
However, the hosts clearly possess greater individual talent in offensive areas, and should have enough to score a couple of goals themselves. We can envisage an entertaining score draw between two sides who look set to finish in mid-table this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 54.91%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.68) 
0.24) 
