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Bundesliga | Gameweek 16
Dec 20, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Voith-Arena
FL

Heidenheim
3 - 2
Freiburg

Dinkci (52'), Kleindienst (84'), Ginter (90+2' og.)
Schoppner (33'), Fohrenbach (37'), Gimber (63')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Holer (7', 64' pen.)
Gulde (5'), Sildillia (36'), Rohl (60'), Hofler (76')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, December 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Heidenheim 1-2 Freiburg

Both sides should head into this contest with plenty of confidence having put together winning runs. While Heidenheim still have plenty of work to do to secure safety, they are well ahead of schedule in that regard. Freiburg, meanwhile, have moved back into the Europa League qualification places and will be determined to stay there during Christmas and the New Year. We expect them to gain a narrow victory on Wednesday to ensure that is the case. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.

Result
HeidenheimDrawFreiburg
50.27% (0.118 0.12) 23.7% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 26.03% (-0.158 -0.16)
Both teams to score 57.03% (-0.281 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.69% (-0.301 -0.3)44.31% (0.302 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.31% (-0.294 -0.29)66.68% (0.29300000000001 0.29)
Heidenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.29% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)17.7% (0.067999999999998 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.64% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)48.35% (0.118 0.12)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.3% (-0.285 -0.28)30.7% (0.285 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.05% (-0.334 -0.33)66.95% (0.334 0.33)
Score Analysis
    Heidenheim 50.27%
    Freiburg 26.03%
    Draw 23.7%
HeidenheimDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 9.62% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.41% (0.102 0.1)
2-0 @ 8.15% (0.07 0.07)
3-1 @ 5.55% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.7% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.28% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.4% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.04% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 50.27%
1-1 @ 11.11% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.68% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.43% (0.071 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.29% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.7%
1-2 @ 6.56% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-1 @ 6.42% (0.034 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.79% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.58% (-0.033 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.24% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.49% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 26.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 0-0 VfL Bochum
Sunday, November 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 4-2 Heidenheim
Saturday, November 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 2-0 Stuttgart
Sunday, November 5 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, December 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: West Ham 2-0 Freiburg
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Wolfsburg 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Freiburg
Sunday, December 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 5-0 Olympiacos
Thursday, November 30 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Freiburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98
Saturday, November 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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