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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 20, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
HL

Freiburg
3 - 2
Hoffenheim

Holer (37'), Grifo (55'), Sallai (85')
Gulde (43'), Grifo (56')
Gulde (82')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Weghorst (57'), Beier (77')
Kaderabek (8'), Kabak (31'), Philipp (87')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Hoffenheim
Friday, January 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched teams vying for European qualification could be on the cards this weekend, but Freiburg will boast the psychological edge considering their recent record in this fixture. Hoffenheim certainly have the firepower to cause problems in the final third, but we believe that Freiburg will find a way to come out on top in front of their own supporters to complete the double over their Sinsheim-based counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 1-0 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawHoffenheim
64.21% (0.013000000000005 0.01) 18.85% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 16.94% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Both teams to score 60.33% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.34% (0.012999999999991 0.01)33.66% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.53% (0.015000000000001 0.02)55.48% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.05% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)9.95% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.09% (0.013999999999996 0.01)32.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Hoffenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67% (0.0010000000000048 0)33% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.41% (0.0010000000000012 0)69.59% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 64.21%
    Hoffenheim 16.94%
    Draw 18.85%
FreiburgDrawHoffenheim
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.74%
1-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.46% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 6.73% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 4.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 3.88% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-2 @ 2.39% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.79% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-2 @ 1.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 64.21%
1-1 @ 8.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 5.37%
0-0 @ 3.28% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 18.85%
1-2 @ 4.66% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 3.64% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-2 @ 2.02% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 1.99%
1-3 @ 1.72%
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 16.94%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 3-2 Freiburg
Wednesday, December 20 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, December 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: West Ham 2-0 Freiburg
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Wolfsburg 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Freiburg
Sunday, December 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Hoffenheim
Friday, January 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 3-3 Darmstadt
Tuesday, December 19 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 3-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 3-1 VfL Bochum
Friday, December 8 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, November 26 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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