Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-0 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.