SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.15%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 24.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Hoffenheim |
52.15% ( -0.39) | 23.37% ( -0.18) | 24.48% ( 0.57) |
| Both teams to score 56.54% ( 1.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.77% ( 1.33) | 44.23% ( -1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.39% ( 1.28) | 66.61% ( -1.28) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.03% ( 0.35) | 16.98% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.92% ( 0.62) | 47.08% ( -0.61) |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.1% ( 1.21) | 31.91% ( -1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.65% ( 1.35) | 68.36% ( -1.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.61% ( -0.45)2-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.3)3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.15% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.17)0-0 @ 5.42% ( -0.32)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.37% | 1-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.64% Total : 24.48% |
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