SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 14.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
67.98% ( 0.46) | 17.65% ( -0.3) | 14.37% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 58.44% ( 0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.81% ( 1.15) | 33.19% ( -1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.05% ( 1.31) | 54.94% ( -1.31) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.05% ( 0.41) | 8.94% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 69.46% ( 0.98) | 30.53% ( -0.98) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.18% ( 0.54) | 35.82% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.4% ( 0.55) | 72.6% ( -0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.21)1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.32)3-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.1)5-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.11)5-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.07)5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.07)6-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 4.06% Total : 67.98% | 1-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.65% | 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 2.24% Total : 14.37% |
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