SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.52%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern Munich |
25.71% ( -1.81) | 20.93% ( -0.14) | 53.36% ( 1.95) |
| Both teams to score 66.73% ( -1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.57% ( -0.94) | 31.43% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.11% ( -1.11) | 52.89% ( 1.11) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.91% ( -1.68) | 24.09% ( 1.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.63% ( -2.45) | 58.37% ( 2.45) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.9% ( 0.25) | 12.1% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.35% ( 0.52) | 37.65% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern Munich |
| 2-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.24) 1-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.15)Other @ 2.72% Total : 25.71% | 1-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.19)0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.47% Total : 20.93% | 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.45)0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.37)2-3 @ 4.64% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 4.58% ( 0.36)1-4 @ 3.44% ( 0.14)2-4 @ 2.45% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.21)1-5 @ 1.45% ( 0.07)3-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.07)2-5 @ 1.03% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.75% Total : 53.36% |
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