SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 35.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Napoli |
40.8% ( 0.04) | 23.3% ( 0.02) | 35.9% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.98% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.46% ( -0.1) | 37.54% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.23% ( -0.11) | 59.76% ( 0.11) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.14% ( -0.02) | 18.85% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.69% ( -0.05) | 50.31% ( 0.05) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( -0.07) | 21.15% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.99% ( -0.11) | 54.01% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Napoli |
| 2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.8% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0)Other @ 3.52% Total : 40.8% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.29% | 1-2 @ 8.03% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.81% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.82% Total : 35.9% |
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