Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 13, 2022 at 8pm UK

Anfield

Liverpool
2 - 1
Ajax

Salah (17'), Matip (89')
Matip (62')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kudus (27')
Alvarez (59'), Berghuis (90+1')

Joel Matip earns Liverpool last-gasp win over Ajax

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Liverpool

Last Six:

Last Game: Napoli 4-1 Liverpool
Wednesday, September 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	Chelsea	6	-1	10
7	Liverpool	6	9	9
8	Brentford	6	6	9

Ajax

Last Six:

Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Heerenveen
Saturday, September 10 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ajax	6	18	18
2	Feyenoord	6	12	16
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	17	15

Liverpool's extra period of rest may work in their favour fitness-wise, especially when it comes to the likes of Thiago and Arthur Melo, but Klopp would have surely wanted the opportunity to gain an injection of confidence before the visit of an Ajax side who only know how to win. The Reds' lacklustre rearguard cannot expect to keep a rampant Ajax attack at bay, but a refreshed Liverpool front line can turn up the heat at the Anfield fortress to rescue a point for the under-performing hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Ajax win was 0-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.

Result
Liverpool	Draw	Ajax
48.11% ( 0.05)	24.54% ( -0.04)	27.34% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 55.37% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.97% (

0.16)

47.03% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.72% (

0.15)

69.27% (

-0.15)

Liverpool Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.39% (

0.08)

19.61% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.44% (

0.13)

51.56% (

-0.13)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.88% (

0.07)

31.12% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.56% (

0.09)

67.44% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Liverpool 48.11%

Ajax 27.34%

Draw 24.54%

Liverpool	Draw	Ajax
1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.13% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.4% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.99% Total : 48.11%	1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.54%	0-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.77% 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 27.34%