SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 6 | 18 | 18 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 6 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 50.84%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.3%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
26.96% ( -1) | 22.2% ( -0.18) | 50.84% ( 1.19) |
| Both teams to score 63.22% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.47% ( 0.08) | 36.53% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.32% ( 0.09) | 58.68% ( -0.09) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.07% ( -0.64) | 25.93% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.07% ( -0.87) | 60.93% ( 0.87) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.36% ( 0.43) | 14.64% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.22% ( 0.82) | 42.78% ( -0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.96% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.2% | 1-2 @ 9.46% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 6.06% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.91% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 2.16% ( 0.12)2-4 @ 1.96% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 1.12% ( 0.06)Other @ 4.31% Total : 50.84% |
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