Ajax have dominated this fixture to a large degree, and it is hard to see that changing here. We are backing the home side to cruise to a comfortable victory at the sound of the full-time whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.43%. A draw had a probability of 8.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 4.66%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 4-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.94%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (1.5%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
86.43% ( 0.19)	8.91% ( -0.09)	4.66% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 51.47% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.84% (

-0.11)

21.15% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

60.28% (

-0.16)

39.72% (

0.16)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.76% (

3.23% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

85.66% (

0.02)

14.33% (

-0.03)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.19% (

-0.5)

46.8% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.66% (

-0.39)

82.33% (

0.38)

Score Analysis

Ajax 86.42%

Heerenveen 4.66%

Draw 8.91%

Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
3-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 6% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.05) 6-1 @ 2.61% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.03) 7-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 7-1 @ 1.28% ( -0) 6-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.51% Total : 86.42%	1-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.88% Total : 8.91%	1-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 4.66%