SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 5 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | FC Twente | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.43%. A draw had a probability of 8.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 4.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 4-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.94%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (1.5%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
86.43% ( 0.19) | 8.91% ( -0.09) | 4.66% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 51.47% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.84% ( -0.11) | 21.15% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.28% ( -0.16) | 39.72% ( 0.16) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.76% ( 0) | 3.23% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.66% ( 0.02) | 14.33% ( -0.03) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.19% ( -0.5) | 46.8% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.66% ( -0.39) | 82.33% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 3-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 6% ( 0.07)1-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 2.61% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.03)7-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.02)7-1 @ 1.28% ( -0)6-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.51% Total : 86.42% | 1-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.88% Total : 8.91% | 1-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 4.66% |
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