SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 65.22%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 0-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
65.22% ( -0.07) | 20.04% ( 0.03) | 14.73% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.64% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.24% ( -0.04) | 43.76% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.85% ( -0.04) | 66.15% ( 0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.38% ( -0.03) | 12.62% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.25% ( -0.07) | 38.75% ( 0.07) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.96% ( 0.04) | 42.04% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.53% ( 0.03) | 78.47% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-0 @ 11.36% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 10.98% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.94% 5-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.52% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0)Other @ 3.21% Total : 65.21% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.95% Total : 20.04% | 0-1 @ 4.6% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.19% ( 0)Other @ 1.6% Total : 14.73% |
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