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Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 12, 2022 at 8pm UK
Camp Nou
IL

Barcelona
3 - 3
Inter Milan

Dembele (40'), Lewandowski (82', 90+2')
Roberto (72'), Dembele (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Barella (50'), Martinez (63'), Gosens (89')
Martinez (52'), de Vrij (55'), Mkhitaryan (84'), Inzaghi (90+7')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Barcelona 2-1 Inter Milan

There is no downplaying the importance of this match, with Barcelona in desperate need of all three points to boost their knockout hopes. We are expecting this to be a very tight game, with Inter more than capable of picking up a positive result, but Barcelona should just have enough at home to claim a vital win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.

Result
BarcelonaDrawInter Milan
40.01% (0.092000000000006 0.09) 24.89% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01) 35.09% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 57.94% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.66% (0.024000000000001 0.02)45.34% (-0.023999999999994 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.32% (0.021000000000001 0.02)67.68% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Barcelona Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.44% (0.058000000000007 0.06)22.56% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.84% (0.084000000000003 0.08)56.16% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.82% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)25.18% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.09% (-0.050999999999995 -0.05)59.91% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Barcelona 40.02%
    Inter Milan 35.09%
    Draw 24.89%
BarcelonaDrawInter Milan
2-1 @ 8.68% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.3% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.13% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.6% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.16% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.11% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 40.02%
1-1 @ 11.66% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.99% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 5.68% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.37% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.89%
1-2 @ 8.04% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.84% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.4% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.7% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.75% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 2.48% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.28% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.95% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 35.09%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Barcelona 1-0 Celta Vigo
Sunday, October 9 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Barcelona
Tuesday, October 4 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Mallorca 0-1 Barcelona
Saturday, October 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Barcelona 3-0 Elche
Saturday, September 17 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Bayern 2-0 Barcelona
Tuesday, September 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Cadiz 0-4 Barcelona
Saturday, September 10 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Sassuolo 1-2 Inter Milan
Saturday, October 8 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Barcelona
Tuesday, October 4 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-2 Roma
Saturday, October 1 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Udinese 3-1 Inter Milan
Sunday, September 18 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Plzen 0-2 Inter Milan
Tuesday, September 13 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Torino
Saturday, September 10 at 5pm in Serie A


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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