We said: Bayern Munich 3-1 Barcelona
Barcelona have far more riding on this game than Bayern do, but it is difficult to see a Blaugrana team low on confidence and numbers springing any surprises at the Allianz Arena.
Some expected changes in the home defence will aid Barca's prospects of making the net ripple, but Nagelsmann's side could very well condemn the Catalans to the unfamiliar territory of Europa League football this week.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 54.06%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 24.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
