These giant clashes can tend to go one of two ways in terms of a tight affair with little action or an entertaining encounter with plenty of goals, but considering the 20 goals across the last four meetings, as well as Nagelsmann's high-risk approach at Bayern, we are predicting the latter for Saturday's spectacle.
Despite the drop off in standards by Bayern in recent weeks, they can never be written off in Der Klassiker meetings, and for this reason we believe they will edge out a Dortmund side boosted by the return of Haaland.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 45.7%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.81%) and 1-3 (5.59%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-3 win for Bayern Munich in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Bayern Munich.
