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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
44.84% ( 0.02) | 23.43% ( -0.13) | 31.72% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 62.06% ( 0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.52% ( 0.64) | 39.48% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.17% ( 0.67) | 61.82% ( -0.67) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.04% ( 0.27) | 17.96% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.21% ( 0.45) | 48.79% ( -0.45) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.64% ( 0.37) | 24.36% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.24% ( 0.52) | 58.76% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.78% Total : 44.84% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 4.37% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.43% | 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.05% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.72% |
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