SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.28%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.22%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
45.28% ( 0.25) | 23.15% ( 0.04) | 31.58% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 63.05% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.85% ( -0.34) | 38.15% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.58% ( -0.37) | 60.42% ( 0.37) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.74% ( -0.04) | 17.26% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.42% ( -0.07) | 47.58% ( 0.07) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.2% ( -0.34) | 23.8% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.04% ( -0.48) | 57.96% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.34% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.1% Total : 45.28% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.14% | 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.9% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.91% Total : 31.58% |
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