Sturm Graz have started the new season as they mean to go on and should play without fear after getting the better of Salzburg, but Dynamo Kiev will prove a stern test as ever.
Lucescu's tight-knit squad needed extra time and an extra man to eventually get the better of Fenerbahce, but we just cannot separate the two squads here and expect the tie to be settled in the second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 41.46%. A win for Dynamo Kiev had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Dynamo Kiev win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
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