SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Cambuur | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 72.98%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 11.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-3 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.22%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (3.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
11.19% ( 0.46) | 15.82% ( 0.17) | 72.98% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 55.33% ( 1.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.57% ( 0.56) | 32.43% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.93% ( 0.64) | 54.06% ( -0.65) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.94% ( 1.2) | 40.05% ( -1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.29% ( 1.08) | 76.7% ( -1.08) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.31% ( -0) | 7.68% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.6% ( 0) | 27.39% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.49% Total : 11.19% | 1-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.18% Total : 15.82% | 0-2 @ 10.13% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 8.67% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 7.93% ( 0.03)0-1 @ 7.89% ( -0.24)0-4 @ 5.56% ( -0.17)1-4 @ 5.09% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.13)0-5 @ 2.86% ( -0.09)1-5 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 2.33% ( 0.08)0-6 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)2-5 @ 1.2% ( 0.04)1-6 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.48% Total : 72.98% |
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