Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 72.98%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 11.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-3 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.22%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (3.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.