SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.02%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 20.33% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (5.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
61.02% ( 0.4) | 18.65% ( -0.05) | 20.33% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 68.09% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.28% ( -0.24) | 26.72% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.87% ( -0.31) | 47.13% ( 0.32) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.29% ( 0.02) | 8.71% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.04% ( 0.04) | 29.96% ( -0.03) |
| Red Star Belgrade Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( -0.43) | 25.42% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.76% ( -0.6) | 60.24% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.11)1-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.73% Total : 61.02% | 1-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.55% Total : 18.65% | 1-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.1% Total : 20.33% |
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