SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.28%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.51% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
56.28% ( -0.22) | 20.2% ( 0.06) | 23.51% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 66.86% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.8% ( -0.11) | 30.19% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.57% ( -0.13) | 51.42% ( 0.13) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.1% ( -0.09) | 10.89% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.95% ( -0.2) | 35.04% ( 0.2) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( 0.05) | 24.96% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.39% ( 0.08) | 59.6% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 56.28% | 1-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.2% ( -0)Other @ 0.48% Total : 20.2% | 1-2 @ 5.81% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 23.51% |
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