SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ferencvaros in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ferencvaros | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
48.94% ( -0.21) | 22.7% ( -0.02) | 28.36% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 62.59% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.13% ( 0.28) | 37.87% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.88% ( 0.3) | 60.12% ( -0.3) |
| Ferencvaros Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.21% ( 0.03) | 15.79% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.07% ( 0.05) | 44.93% ( -0.05) |
| Red Star Belgrade Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.33% ( 0.3) | 25.67% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.42% ( 0.41) | 60.58% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ferencvaros | Draw | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.78% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.93% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.67% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.78% Total : 48.94% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.7% | 1-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.41% Total : 28.36% |
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