SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Manchester City |
39.99% ( 0.03) | 25.63% ( 0.01) | 34.38% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.24% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.23% ( -0.05) | 48.77% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.12% ( -0.04) | 70.87% ( 0.04) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.91% ( -0) | 24.09% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.62% ( -0.01) | 58.38% ( 0.01) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.77% ( -0.05) | 27.23% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.35% ( -0.06) | 62.65% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Manchester City |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.1% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.46% 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.99% | 1-1 @ 12.14% 0-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 8.53% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.41% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 3.01% Total : 34.38% |
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